Modeling Various Drought Time Scales via a Merged Artificial Neural Network with a Firefly Algorithm

Drought monitoring and prediction have important roles in various aspects of hydrological studies. In the current research, standardized precipitation index (SPI) was monitored predicted Peru between 1990 2015. The study proposed a hybrid model, called ANN-FA, for SPI time scales (SPI3, SPI6, SPI18, SPI24). A state-of-the-art firefly algorithm (FA) has been documented as powerful tool to support modeling issues. ANN-FA uses an artificial neural network (ANN) which is coupled with FA Lima via other stations. Through intelligent utilization series from neighbors’ stations model inputs, suggested approach might be used forecast at meteorological station insufficient data. To conduct this, SPI3, SPI24 were modeled using stations’ datasets Peru. Various error criteria employed investigate performance model. Results showed that effective promising drought also multi-station strategy lack results can help predict mean absolute = 0.22, root square 0.29, Pearson correlation coefficient 0.94, agreement 0.97 testing phase best estimation (SPI3).